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Friday, January 13, 2012

FKLI FUTURE REVIEW FROM TOKAN CORNER

THE FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index(FBM KLCI) closed marginally higher for the second trading week of the year. The index rebounded on four out of the five trading days under review.

Heavyweight index-linked counters continued to dominate trading activities.

The FBM KLCI trended between a low of 1,513.35 and a high of 1,526.27 during the week. It closed at 1,523.07 yesterday, giving a week-on-week gain of 8.94 points.

The FBM KLCI opened marginally higher at 1,515.06 on Monday before hitting its intra-week low of 1,513.35. The benchmark index then trended within a tight range for the rest of the week.

 

Fkli16012012

CPO FUTURES Review From Tokan Corner

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia's crude palm oil (CPO) in 2011 posted new records in terms of production at 18.9 million tonnes, exports at 18 million tonnes and the average price of RM3,247 per tonne respectively.

A year earlier, production stood at 16.9 million tonnes, exports at 16.7 million tonnes and average CPO price at RM2,701 per tonne respectively.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) in its December 2011 statistics released on Tuesday showed that end-December palm oil stocks closed higher at 2.04 million tonnes, compared with 1.62 million tonnes in December 2010.

The 2011 end-December stock, had stayed above the two million tonnes mark for the fourth consecutive months.

Historically, analysts said inventory remained above two million tonnes for only two consecutive months.

For the month under review, CPO production fell to a nine-month low at 1.49 million tonnes, exports down 4.5% to 1.59 million tonnes but average price of fresh fruit bunches rose to RM33.2 per tonne versus RM32.82 per tonne in the previous month.

Based on the latest MPOB statistics, a trader told StarBiz that CPO could likely stay at about RM3,000 per tonne in the first quarter of 2012, but the situation might change for the remaining part of the year.

“Fundamentals are getting weaker on ample supply situation amid weaker demand given a protracted debt crisis in the United States and Europe,” he said.

[[posterous-content:pid___0]]

Furthermore, Indonesia's massive new planting in 2008 of almost 600,000ha, will also start to hit the world market in 2012 and 2013.

Maybank IB Research in its latest report said local inventory this month could likely remain at two million tonnes “if palm oil downtrend sales trend persist.”

Independent cargo surveyors, Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) and Intertek had estimated a 19% drop at 352,800 tonnes and a 16% drop at 371,635 tonnes in exports during the first 10 days of January.

The research unit is maintaining its average CPO price forecast at RM2,600 per tonne in 2012 for now against RM3,247 in 2011 as “we have imputed an external economic slowdown that will hurt global demand.”

However, it will also closely monitor recent dry spell in South America that may result in some soybean crop damages and could eventually lead the unit to revise slightly upwards its CPO price assumption.

Meanwhile, OSK Research in its regional plantation sector is maintaining the average CPO price for 2012 at RM3,000 per tonne as “we believe that palm oil will be in an abundant supply this year.”

While the research unit does not believe the current price rally will sustain beyond the first quarter, it expects there would be more upside in the immediate term as concerns over South America's soybean planting and seasonally weak production will be supportive of higher prices.

“We believe that CPO price will undergo an unexciting period after the first quarter peak as production hits trough and an upcycle begins.

“It is too early to be overweight on the sector but we do think that 2013 will see the start of several years of strengthening palm oil price as supply in Indonesia potentially reaches a plateau,” added OSK Research.

By: The Star

 

Oh yea btw please read my previous post :

 http://tokancorner.com/2012/01/bursa-malaysia-fkli-futures-trading/cpo-futures/

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

CPO FUTURES

Well here a messy chart... i need your guys help me to determine which one is the correct one. The first picture or the second one ?? 

 

Cpo_wave

 

 

Cpo_wavex

Soy Bean Oil Chart Review

Well nothing to type...as people said a picture will have 1000 meaning :) So i just uploaded the picture only then... hahha

 

Soybean_12012012

What do u think ??

Saturday, January 7, 2012

FKLI REVIEW FOR 9 JANUARY 2012

Dagangan Hadapan Malaysia FKLI Oleh Tokan Corner :

Please Use Google Translate

 

Sebagai carta dan Andrew Pitchfork menunjukkan. FKLI telah berhenti di tengah-tengah jajaran Andrew Pitchfork. EMA dan SMA masih berada dalam isyarat “Belian” . Walaubagaimanapun para traders disarankan untuk “ Buy On Dips “ pada mata 1487-1497 sekiranya berlaku pengambilan untung akibat telah berada pada paras rintangan di tengah-tengah Andrew Pithcfork.

Pasaran Dow Jones pada jumaat lepas tidak memberansangkan walaupun data yang dikeluarkan agak baik. Ini kerana keadaan di Eropah masih tidak menentu dan akibat beberapa penurunan rating yang telah berlaku.

 

Dan tidak terlambat bagi saya untuk mengucapkan “ Selamat Tahun Baru 2012” buat semua pembaca “tokancorner.com” . ^_^

Fkli_next_week_dailyxx

Friday, October 21, 2011

FCPO Review For 24 Till 28 October 2011

Palm Oil Has First Weekly Gain in Four on Chinese Oilseed Demand Outlook

 

Palm oil advanced to the highest level in more than two weeks after soybeans gained on speculation that China may boost imports to meet rising demand.

The December-delivery contract gained 2.2 percent to 2,906 ringgit ($929) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the highest level at close since Sept. 28. Futures advanced 4.8 percent this week, the first in four weeks.

 

Palm oil is taking cues from the gains in soybean because of demand by end users in China,” Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte., said by phone from Singapore today. “China will be stepping up purchases due to positive crush margins and strong demand from the livestock industry.”

 

China’s soybean imports rose 4 percent to a record 52.3 million tons in the year ended Sept. 30, according to customs data. U.S. soybeans inspected for export more than doubled to 23.4 million bushels in the week ended Oct. 6 from a week earlier, with two-thirds set for China, the Department of Agriculture said this week.

 

Soybean futures for November delivery climbed as much as 0.7 percent to $12.66 a bushel, the highest level since Sept. 27, and traded at $12.65 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

 

India Purchases Palm oil futures may climb to 3,150 ringgit a ton in the next two months, Ravi Chandra, vice president at Hyderabad, India-based TransGraph Consulting Pvt., said yesterday. Palm oil last traded above that level in July.

 

Refined, bleached, and deodorized palm oil imports by India, the largest buyer, rose 54 percent to 143,296 tons in September, while crude palm oil purchases declined 6.7 percent to 548,904 tons, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said today.

 

The huge discount to soy will continue to attract buying interest on any major falls,” Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, a director at Commtrendz Research Management Services Pvt. in Mumbai, said in a report today.

 

Soybean oil’s premium over palm oil was $236.8 a ton today, compared with an average of $166.31 this year. It touched $289.96 a ton on Aug. 31, the highest since November 2008, according to Bloomberg data.

 

Soybean oil for December climbed as much as 1.2 percent to 53.09 cents per pound. Palm and soybean oils are substitutes in food and fuel uses.

 

Palm oil for delivery in May climbed 0.5 percent to close at 8,024 yuan ($1,258) per ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and soybean oil for delivery in the same month advanced 0.6 percent to end at 9,376 yuan a ton.

 

Fcpo_24-28_okt_2011

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

DJIA : BULL HAS BLEEDED !!!!!

After showing a lack of direction throughout much of the trading session on Wednesday, stocks came under considerable selling pressure following the announcement of the Federal Reserve's latest effort to boost the sluggish economic recovery.

 

The major averages accelerated to the downside going into the close, ending the session near their worst levels of the day. The Dow plunged 283.82 points or 2.5 percent to 11,124.84, the Nasdaq tumbled 52.05 points or 2 percent to 2,538.19 and the S&P 500 plummeted 35.33 points or 2.9 percent at 1,166.76.

 

Indu22092011

The selling pressure on Wall Street emerged after the Fed announced its widely expected move to stimulate the economy by replacing short-term securities in its bond portfolio with longer-term securities.

 

The Fed said that it intends to purchase $400 billion worth of securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years by the end of June 2012, funding the purchase with the sale of an equal amount of securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less.

 

"This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative," the Fed said.

 

At the same time, the central bank noted that economic growth remains slow and warned that there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook.

 

Commenting on the Fed announcement, Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said, "The big question is whether this latest action will accomplish anything? We doubt it."

 

"The cost of borrowing simply isn't the problem," he added. "Businesses don't have the confidence to invest and half of all mortgage borrowers don't have the home equity needed to refinance at lower rates."

 

With all eyes on the Fed, traders largely shrugged off the release of a report from the National Association of Realtors showing a much bigger than expected increase in existing home sales in the month of August.

 

In corporate news, shares of Microsoft (MSFT) came under pressure on the day even though the software giant announced a 25 percent increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.20 per share. The company also said it is continuing its $40 billion share repurchase program.

 

Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL) bucked the downtrend after reporting first quarter results that exceeded analyst estimates. The business software giant also forecast second quarter earnings in line with analyst estimates. Shares of Oracle rose by 4.2 percent to a nearly-two month closing high.

 

Adobe Systems (ADBE) also closed higher after the publishing and design software maker reported better than expected third quarter earnings and forecast fourth quarter results toward the high end of analyst estimates.

 

While most of the major sectors came under pressure following the Fed announcement, railroad stocks saw substantial weakness throughout the trading day. The Dow Jones Railroads Index tumbled by 7 percent to an eleven-month closing low.

 

Steep losses by Norfolk Southern (NSC) and CSX Corp. (CSX) contributed to the weakness in the railroad sector, which came after two coal producers lowered their forecasts for coal shipments this year.

 

Considerable weakness was also visible among steel stocks, as reflected by the 2.4 percent loss posted by the NYSE Arca Steel Index. The index fell to its worst closing level in over two years amid concerns about the outlook for global demand.

 

Banking stocks also came under significant selling pressure on the day, resulting in a 5.5 percent loss by the KBW Bank Index. Bank of America (BAC) turned in one of the sector's worst performances after Moody's downgraded its rating on the financial giant's debt.

 

Commercial real estate, trucking, and oil service stocks also posted notable losses amid the broad based weakness that emerged after the Fed announcement.

 

Other Markets

 

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region closed mostly higher on Wednesday, although Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index bucked the uptrend. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index edged up by 0.2 percent, while China's Shanghai Composite Index surged up by 2.7 percent.

 

Meanwhile, the major European markets showed notable moves the downside on the day. The German DAX Index tumbled by 2.5 percent, while the French CAC 40 Index and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index fell by 1.6 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

 

In the bond market, treasuries moved sharply higher following the announcement from the Fed. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite price, fell by 7.2 basis points to a record closing low of 1.875 percent.

 

Looking Ahead

 

Economic data may attract some attention on Thursday, with the Labor Department due to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims. The Conference Board is also due to release its report on leading economic indicators in the month of August.

 

On the earnings front, delivery giant FedEx (FDX) is among the companies that are due to release their quarterly results before the start of trading on Thursday.